Without data you’re just someone else with an opinion

A good number of years ago I was having a catch up over a beer with a mate who had changed roles. We found ourselves talking about work for a little bit. (If you’re gonna party, party hard…). In the course of the work chat he mention that his assets had recently went through a drive to reduce the amount of safety critical backlog that they were carrying and they’d got the total figure down to about 10,000 hours which my mate said “feels about right.”. “What do you mean it “feels about right?”” I asked. “It seems about the right level for us.” was the reply. “What do you mean?” I asked. “I mean I think that feels to be appropriate for us given where we are.” The conversation essentially followed the same loop for a few more laps, with him saying the volume of backlog “felt” right and me trying to work out what basis was being applied that made it “feel” right. There was essentially nothing more substantive forthcoming and as I went to the bar to get the next round in I concluded that his decisions was just based on “gut feel”.

Whilst I was still quite wet behind the ears at this point, I remember this striking me as odd as I had assumed my mate’s views would have to be based on data but they really weren’t. Since that time I’ve always tried to pay attention to what data or facts are being used to base decisions and it’s amazing how often decisions are being made simply based on people’s opinion and not data or fact.

I realise it could be argued that almost any decision is an opinion, however, wherever possible that decision should be made based on an interpretation of accurate, factual data. The simple truth is that on a large number of occasions within many industries, decisions are not. They are made, based only on past experience (which may no longer be relevant), gut feel and personal preference., like the example given above.

These decisions are being taken on the most serious of topics. E.g. whether an asset is safe to continue producing. How many people are required to operate and maintain an asset? How much risk is an asset carrying? What should the maintenance budget be for next year? What is the likelihood of meeting an organisations production target?

To be in control, organisations have to look upon “gut feel” decisions with scepticism if they are not supported by data. Without data, the decision maker is just someone with an opinion and in this era, when information is so readily available and quantifiable, there is no reason not to expect more than just opinion.