Robust Risk Management Can Increase Risk

People and organisations need to be aware of the behavioural impact of seemingly robust controls.

The world recognised avalanche expert Jil Fredston is well known for saying that better safety gear actually entices climbers to take more risk, making them in fact less safe.

Robust risk assessment, articulation and control mechanisms can do the same for many. Considerable effort and rigor is often placed on the development of and training in risk assessment and management. This rigor and resulting confindence in the mechanisms can inadvertently lead people and organisations to take much more risk.

Knowing the likelihood doesn’t mean you know what the outcome will be.

It should always be remembered that asking people to estimate the likelihood of a consequence to occur is asking them to predict the future. This is extremely difficult even when the likelihood of an event happening can be precisely calculated. Like throwing a dice. We know exactly the likelihood of any given number being thrown, but we still can’t predict what actually will come up.

Risk assessment and management is an essential part of everyday life for people and organisations, but it should always be remembered that the higher the number of risks that are being managed by risk management and mitigation as opposed to risk elimination, the greater the likelihood of a consequence occurring.